Lafayette, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

549
FXUS64 KLCH 242300
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
600 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A moist and unstable air mass will remain in place for through
  tomorrow with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Any
  storm may produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

- An upper level ridge will build in over the weekend into early
  next week limiting any shower activity with hot and humid
  conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Next short wave to move down into the forecast area tonight into
early Friday. Guidance has not done a good job lately depicting
these features. There is a small cluster of storms over northeast
Texas associated with it. CAMs basically have this feature falling
apart before reaching the forecast area. However, with good
instability, there is a decent chance that a convective feature
will be able to make into at-least the northwest half of the
forecast area tonight. Therefore, will go higher than what the NBM
was showing for pops for central Louisiana and interior southeast
Texas. If it holds together enough, then gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall can be expected.

Moist, unstable air mass will remain in place over the forecast
area on Friday with remnants of short wave/convective feature
moving across. Daytime heating should help initiate scattered
showers and thunderstorms, especially north of the I-10 corridor.

An upper level ridge will finally start to build in on Saturday,
ending any significant rain chances, with hot and humid
conditions.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Southerly flow in the low levels will continue as a surface high
over the western Atlantic ridges into the forecast area. This will
continue to bring in Gulf moisture. However, an upper level ridge
over northern Old Mexico is expected to build over the forecast
area by Sunday and remain over the forecast area through the
period.

Therefore, limited, if any, shower activity is expected.
It will feel almost summer like with hot and humid conditions.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)

Main concern this evening is MCS thunderstorm cluster holding
strong over East Texas, moving east-southeast around 20-22 kts.
Short term guidance shows this weakening as it approaches the
area. However, guidance has been off lately, and climatology, as
well as the recent Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction
Center, suggests this feature could hold strong this evening when
it approaches BPT/AEX/LCH. Thus, have left VCTS for these sites,
and placed a TEMPO group for TSRA from 02-06z for BPT, and 03-07z
for AEX/LCH. Left LFT/ARA out of this complex, and will address
this later if needed. Thereafter, MVFR ceilings and visibilities
expected overnight at all sites, with improvement by 15z Friday.
Higher chances for SHRA/TSRA for AEX by 18z Friday warranted a
PROB30 group during the afternoon, otherwise VCTS was sufficient
for BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA with the lower chances.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Surface high pressure centered off the east coast and over the
Western Atlantic will ridge across into the forecast area over the
next several days. This will continue a light to modest south to
southeast flow with low seas into the weekend and early next week.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  84  65  86 /  40  50   0  10
LCH  70  84  68  86 /  10  30   0  10
LFT  69  84  67  86 /  10  30   0  10
BPT  71  85  68  86 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...08